Show Notes for Ep. 30 Interview with Alexander Motyl on the Ukraine/Russia War

by | Feb 6, 2024 | Geopolitics, Politics and Policy, War

While our podcast community is not focused on current events or daily headlines, we keep returning to the ongoing war in Ukraine because of the massive geopolitical implications it has on nearly every other global trend we are focused on. From the stability of international security alliances to the far reaching economic impacts of severed supply lines to the signals being sent to democracies and autocracies alike, understanding this conflict and where it may be headed is critical for any political, policy, business or non-profit leader that has global decisions to make in the coming years. Even for individuals who don’t have such responsibilities, I believe it is morally important to gain an appreciation for how and why this regional policy disagreement erupted into one of the bloodiest conflicts in the world. Perhaps we can all learn something from it to avoid a repeat in our corner of the world.
We have had some great guests on the show to discuss various aspects of the Ukraine war but for an in depth, forward looking conversation, I turned to Alexandr Motyl, Rutgers University political science professor and deputy director of the school’s Division of Global Affairs. Alexander is noted for his prolific writings on contemporary politics in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, as well as for more theoretical explorations into the nature of nationalism, empire, and revolution. Over the past two and a half decades, he has written six books of nonfiction and contributed dozens of articles to academic and policy journals, newspaper op-ed pages, and magazines.
Our conversation explored the state of the conflict in Ukraine as of early 2024, the perspectives of the combatant leaders and governments, the potential long term goals of Russia in Eastern Europe, and the overall regional dynamics in the area including commentary on the Baltic nations, Hungary and Serbia. We also discussed the lack of a unified international condemnation of the Russian invasion and the potential outcomes of the conflict.
Alexander also offers a bold, but informed, prediction about where the conflict is likely headed by 2025 and beyond and the potential consequences for the entire world.

A few key takeaways from this episode include:

  • The conflict in Ukraine has resulted in frozen lines with small gains on either side as of early 2024.
  • The significance of Ukraine to Russia goes beyond the personality of its leader.
  • The realities of combat and the bloodshed in the conflict make peace without future conflicts challenging.
  • The Hungarian regime’s stance on the conflict in Ukraine has caused dissension among Western countries.

Chapters of interest if you want to reference back include:

  • 00:00 – The State of the Conflict in Ukraine
  • 04:15 – The Russian Perspective
  • 12:25 – The Realities of Combat and the Possibility of Peace
  • 20:12 – The Ukrainian Side and the Role of Volodymyr Zelensky
  • 28:14 – The Potential Goals of Russia in Eastern Europe
  • 35:14 – Regional Dynamics and the Case of Hungary
  • 43:44 – Russia’s Involvement in Serbia
  • 45:42 – The Lack of Unified International Condemnation
  • 53:25 – The Future of the Conflict
  • 56:32 – Implications for the Next 12-18 Months
  • 57:45 – Author’s Works and Conclusion

To learn more about Alexander:

This interview is just a conversation starter, I invite you to join in and share this episode with your personal and professional network. Listen to the interview, then give me your perspective. You can also find the latest show preview clips on my YouTube Channel. I encourage you to subscribe to the channel, share the clips and leave your comments.

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